It is definitely going to happen

I will be riding across America this year. The training, albeit less than I would like, is now complete. The logistical planning is done; Karen and I rented a Highlander and drove to Newport Beach on Saturday. Almost all of the decisions about what to take have been made; I just need to pack. The bike was checked out and pronounced ready to ride; I took a final tune-up ride on Thursday.

This year’s ride is different than last year’s. Ending in Georgia and not Massachusetts is really a rather trivial difference. No the major difference is that I know what to expect. The first ten days are on the same roads as last year’s ride. I know where I failed on last year’s ride and I have to ask myself can I succeed this time. I hope so, but in reality I will just have to try again this time and see what my limits are.

Confidence There seem to me to be two reasonable ways in which one can be confident that they will accomplish the task at hand. The first way comes from having done the task so many times before that there is no logical reason why you will not complete the task this time. The second to believe you have skills that far exceed the task at hand even though you have not previously done the task. These approaches can help one achieve success, but neither assures success. Even if you have completed a task many times, others have not. Why will you always be able to avoid the problems that have stopped others? If you haven’t attempted something before, no matter how good you are, there is always a chance that you will fail. The reasonable person has confidence in their ability, but acknowledges that there are circumstances that could prevent success.

There is a third far worse way in which one can become confident – by having a willful ignorance of the extent of the problem at hand. Most riders on this trip are really in that category. They have little if any experience with the problems they are likely to encounter during 26 days of riding 100+ miles a day.

On this ride everyone is confident they can do it. One of the more important things is to learn why they are confident and separate those with skills that exceed those needed to ride across America from those that have not acknowledged the magnitude of the task at hand.

Last year my confidence came from skills that I thought were sufficient and an inability to understand the difficulty that riding across America entails. This year while I may be better able to complete the ride, I have less confidence in my abilities to finish. I know what is necessary and have a more realistic view of my strengths and weaknesses.